NCAA picks

So I was filling out my bracket this morning and got thinking about how people pick upsets.  Every year there's a few surprise teams that shock everyone and win a few games, and if you can be lucky enough to pick the upsets correctly, you're looked at as a college basketball genius.  I use the word lucky here very purposefully, because I honestly think there's way more luck involved than skill in picking the right underdogs.

Talking to people about their brackets, I hear things like "Bucknell is gonna pull of the upset victory, I'm sure of it".  Really?  You're sure?  When people say thinks like that it sounds to me like there saying they think they're smarter than the selection committee that watches these teams all year puts hours of work into deciding which teams make the tournament in which seeds.  Personally I think this is a little ridiculous.

Now I do pick a lot of upsets in  my bracket, but when I do so it's not because I think I'm smarter than the selection committee.  When people pick upsets I think it's more reasonable to understand that your going out on a limb, and that your team probably wont win but it would be cool if they did.